One Acre Shield

ENSO per country forecasting·

IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation, calibrated with Extended Logistic Regression and rendered per One Acre Fund country.
Country forecasts
ENSO + IOD analogs
Historical impact
Locust risk

Filters

One Acre Fund country. The map zooms to its growing areas; the ENSO & locust tabs are global (the same for every country).

Show the rainfall outlook or the temperature outlook.

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The future 3-month season being forecast. Codes are the months' initials — JJA = Jun-Jul-Aug, SON = Sep-Oct-Nov.

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Most users can leave this at the latest. Drag back to compare older forecasts (the month IRI published them).

Colours show the chance the season lands in the wettest, middle, or driest third of the 1991–2020 record (for temperature: coolest / middle / warmest). Deeper colour = more confident; white = no clear signal. Green outline = OAF growing areas.iOAF — One Acre Fund. AEZ — agro-ecological zone (areas with similar climate & soils). Tercile — one of three equal thirds (driest / middle / wettest) of the 1991–2020 record.

Niño 3.4 trajectories from April onwardiNiño 3.4 — the central-equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly that defines El Niño (warm) / La Niña (cool). An analog is a past year with a similar starting point.

Weekly Niño 3.4 anomaly (CPC OISST). Each colored line is what Niño 3.4 did over 18 months starting from April of a past El Niño year. The bright-green dotted line is the current trajectory — it extends week by week as CPC publishes new weekly values.

IOD (DMI) weekly trajectories from April onwardiIOD — Indian Ocean Dipole; DMI is its index (east-minus-west Indian Ocean temperature). A positive IOD often suppresses East African short rains.

Weekly DMI (BoM, OISST-based). Colored lines are the 2015 & 2023 El Niño short-rains seasons; the bright-green dotted line is the current year, extending week by week as BoM publishes new values. (BoM's weekly record starts 2008, so older El Niño years aren't shown.) A positive IOD — warm western Indian Ocean — tends to suppress East African short rains.

IRI/NMME ENSO forecast plume — Niño 3.4iENSO — El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the Pacific warm/cool cycle. NMME — North American Multi-Model Ensemble (the set of climate models). IRI publishes this plume; SST = sea-surface temperature.

Each thin grey line is one model's Niño 3.4 SST-anomaly forecast. Bold lines are the group means — red = dynamical, blue = statistical, white = all-model; gold = recent observations. Dotted lines mark El Niño strength bands (weak +0.5, moderate +1.0, strong +1.5, very strong +2.0) and La Niña (−0.5). Source: IRI's published plume data (exact values, fetched at refresh — works offline).

Controls

OAF countries with a defined growing season. Where OAF location data isn't loaded yet, the whole country is used as the operational area.

Each country's actual growing season(s).

The map shows the average rainfall anomaly across those years.

Composite = the phase average. Or pick one year (or click a bar below) to see just that year's map.

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Composite rainfall anomalyiRainfall this season vs the 1991–2020 normal, as a %. Greener = wetter, browner = drier. The headline aggregates over the OAF area (green outline); the map shows the spatial pattern. Source: TAMSAT satellite rainfall.

Greener = wetter than normal, browner = drier. Green outline = OAF growing areas.
Drier
Wetter  OAF area

Every year, by ENSO phase

Each bar = that season's rainfall anomaly over the OAF area in one past year. Click a bar to map that year. Dashed lines = ENSO-phase composite means; the solid white line = the mean of the filtered selection. Combine an ENSO phase with an IOD filter to test, e.g., El Niño + positive IOD. The IOD is seasonal (active ~Jun–Nov, peak SON), so it only discriminates years in the OND short-rains seasons — elsewhere nearly every year is Neutral IOD.
ENSO IODiIOD — Indian Ocean Dipole. Each year is grouped by its concurrent-season DMI (east–west Indian Ocean SST gradient): ≥+0.4 = positive, ≤−0.4 = negative. A positive IOD reinforces El Niño's wet signal in the East African short rains. Sort

Desert locust observations across Africa + Arabian Peninsula

Each dot is a PRESENT-state observation reported to FAO DLIS via the eLocust3 system. OAF country outlines are in bright green. Pan and zoom to drill into a region.